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Vampire
Free Worlds League
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 Posted: 06-Jun-2004 18:11 Post subject: RE: Successor States Orders of Battle 3025 |
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Q: Eventhough the CC may have had 2xx systems... I am pretty sure the sourcebook clearly indicated the CC had 421 planets...
I counted the systems on the map. There are stars with more than one habitable world. The most famous example would be the probably most fought over system in the Sphere, Andurien.
Considering the late formation of the Confederation, and the shrinking borders, I find it logical that the Capellans colonized and terraformed many marginally habitable worlds aside from the primary habitable planet in the system.
At least that's my idea to explain partially the discrepancy. Bear in mind many of those "planets" are just outposts or small scale colonies. Another possible explanation is that the bulk of those planets/systems have been abandoned, nuked into a radioactive cinder, or have fallen into barbarism and are living at the pure primitive subsistence level, so nobody bothers planting their flag there.
Q: Another comment, though its more a thought, is that I find it unlikely that important and vital planets would only have one militia regiment
Well, so do I. But the pattern that emerges is that the Successor States rely on the "standoff" or "preemptive" border defense (for lack of a better term) instead of the current conventional wisdom that says defense in depth is superior.
Hey, I wouldn't mind another couple hundred regiments. Bear in mind that these armies are the pitiful exhausted remnants of centuries of warfare, and they are essentially a police force geared towards raids and border skirmishes and that this is a period of relative peace. They are adequate for this low intensity conflict, but they would have to expand to conduct major offensive operations.
Though in these circumstances, I would apply what the German marshal Von Rundstedt of WWII answered when his staff asked him what to do next (after the Allied breakout from Normandy)
"Make peace, you idiots!"
Seriously, only a Kuritan or similar bloodthirsty megalomaniac would think of starting a new war.
But I digress, biggest problem is the deployment. I could understand 80 regiments being placed in Tikonov if Davion was hell bent in taking the planet. But such a battle would be the only one being fought in the entire front as it would tie up all the transports of both sides (specially for the invader) , and it would last years, and considering the precedents, it would end up finally with the invader lifting the siege and retreating. Tikonov , like Hesperus II, are those kind of planets that are virtually impregnable.
Otherwise, Tikonov can be held with far fewer regiments to dissuade an invasion and the excess ones be redistributed more evenly and effectively.
In fact, why bother garrisoning planets at all, allowing the Suns invasion to gobble up regiments piecemeal?
If border defenses are to be overrun, concentrate units in a few inner planets to be used as counterattack reserves in a elastic defense strategy. In order to make any permanent advance in interplanetary warfare, it's neccessary to occupy and consolidate each taken planet and beat counterattacks before you can progress further.
I would describe interplanetary warfare in Battletech as sort of a cross between trench warfare in the Western front in WW1, island hopping in the Pacific in WW2, and chess.
Q: Another thought would be the assumption that each listed mech regiment would have his own direct support regiments perhaps... They are not listed in House Liao, but I believe they sure are in FM: CC
Read closely through the former posts, I did notice that. It was an omission by the author. Line regiments are not just the Battlemech regiments, but also the conventional units attached to them.
In the NAIS Atlas Battleforce listings, it's shown that every regiment has some conventional support attached. Usually a battallion of armor, some infantry for security, artillery, and other support units.
Moreover, Strategic Director Ridzik is an admirer of the Federated combined arms doctrine and has imitated the Regimental Combat Teams by grouping Battlemech regiments with conventional support in Battle Groups.
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Vampire
Free Worlds League
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| Posted: 06-Jun-2004 18:13 Post subject: RE: Successor States Orders of Battle 3025 |
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Q: Regarding the discrepancy in numbers
maybe between 3025 and 3029 the CCCAF expanded it's conventional forces?
An imaginative answer, but not supported by facts.
The Home Guard and militia infantry regiments are short regiments, 2 Battallion each. If there was a mobilization, they could get to full strength using the recruits near completion of training and reservists, and cancelling discharges, without downgrading quality or unit cohesion too much.
So yes, the Home Guard could field 120 infantry regiments and the militia 300. Notice that this fits into the projected 600 wartime strength I gave before.
These is the maximum force that can be mobilized in a short time, resorting to trained personnel and weapons in the armories. And you need a couple months notice to account for issuing mobilization orders , refresher training, and deployment.
Expansion beyond that force level is possible, but it recquires many months of building up military production output (everything from uniforms and rations to spares, weapons, and ammunition), training time (it takes a year for a trooper to learn his or her trade), and most important of all, transport assets and time to get the recruits and the weapons and supplies to where the units are deployed.
All that time is neccessary if you want a reasonably efficient fighting force and not hordes of cannon fodder raw recruits.
Furthermore, the militia is almost worthless, no matter how big their numbers are. They are a bit better than the Federated Suns Planetary Guards that are only good for keeping the peasant rabble in line, but I wouldn't factor them in strategic considerations other that as an annoyance that forces a invader to bring along some infantry to mop them up.
So focusing on the line units. The Home Guard could expand to 120 regiments, but armor remains the same at 50 regiments.
That's still falling more than 100 regiments short of the units accounted for in the NAIS Atlas. Even if you consider planetary militia in the invaded worlds expanded to full regiments, it barely reaches the 280 mark. And that still leaves the other half of the Confederation unnacounted for.
The point I'm trying to make is that the discrepancy in numbers cannot be explained by an expansion of the CAF troops.
The simplest explanation is the right one, that the author of the House Liao sourcebook forgot to include the line regiments, an oversight that was later corrected in the FM: CC
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Vampire
Free Worlds League
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| Posted: 06-Jun-2004 18:42 Post subject: RE: Successor States Orders of Battle 3025 |
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AFFS OOB: STrenghts and Weaknessess
The ratio for the Fed Suns is 5-1 mechs to armor. Thus if 78 mech regiments exist in 3025 there would be 390 armor regiments. Quite a bit higher than the number you chose to use.
You are using a wrong source. You are going by the Field Manual that describes a completely different beast inheritor of the Federated Commonweallth.
The conventional forces are those of the Regular Army, integrated into Regimental Combat Teams, both frontline and March Militias. Bear in mind that not every Battlemech regiment has an RCT attached. A frontline RCT has 3 Armor regiments (1 Heavy , 2 Medium) ; 5 Infantry regiments (1, Jump, 2 Mechanized, 2 Foot) ; 1 Artillery battallion; 2 Aerospace wings. Quote "Of course, in this universe of diminishing supplies, the actual composition of an RCT may vary widely from this model"
March Militia RCTs have 2 Armor regiments ( Medium) ; 5 Infantry regiments (mostly foot) ; 1 Artillery company; and some aerospace support, where available.
After adding up all the RCTs and factoring in the variations from the norm stated in the notes about each regiment, he exact total is
137 armored regiments
247 infantry regiments
384 Total
The AFFS is not small it is huge. However it is also well equipped
It has a significant advantage in numbers , but the advantage in Battlemech numbers is about 15-20%. The AFFS looks big because it employs a large number of mercenaries, wich constitute 1/3rd of its peak strength.
About well equipped, the AFFS can only get those high numbers by filling the ranks with whatever walks, and keeping old 'Mechs in service. All the March Militia 'Mechs are "ancient", though still battle worthy. The FS suffers as much as any others from shortages of spares and replacements, a larger industrial base than its rivals and battlefield booty being offset by the wide variety of 'Mechs that are employed
and geared to the offence.
That is one thing we agreee. The AFFS may not be as big as propaganda puts , but it does have an advantage in offensive forces, with 110 'Mech regiments, 140 armored regiments, and lots of Aerospace support, or at least more concentrated than in other Houses.
RCTs are geared for the offensive, and both the jump and mechanized infantry regiments are credible offensive forces, even if what really matters are the 'Mech and tanks units. The foot infantry is there mainly for security, occupation, and taking prisoners.
The advantage the Regular Army has , besides superior training and coordination, that acts as a force multiplier, is that it has a lot of firepower. The RCTs use artillery and airstrikes to ease the burden of infantry. Once the enemy 'Mechs and armor regiments are defeated, the other enemy forces will surrender, or additional infantry units can be ferried for occupation and mopping up.
RCTs are not occupation forces, they lack manpower for that. Other Houses on average attach 10 conventional regiments to a regiment for a planetary conquest campaign. RCTs are purely offensive units, very apt at overrunning and enemy, but not so suited for subduing a planetary population (unless it resorts to brutal shows of force to intimidate the population) or cleaning up pockets of resistance where their firepower cannot be used without causing major unwanted collateral damage
regarding the FS advantages in the 4SW
They had the advantage of author fiat. Period. For Blake's sake, the history of the war is written by a Davion propangadist. The only battles that seem moderately plausible are the ones in the Lyran-Draconis front (despite the absurdity of the strategic premises) and the account is somewhat more even handed only because the author is almost as dismissive of the Lyrans as it's of the Dracs.
Summing it up, the books read like a letter to Penthouse from a Davion munchkin.
Pretending to justify the outcome of the war is an exercise in futility. The best answer Davionistas can come up is the 3-1 pat answer. Oh, I can accept that, given the technology of Battletech, there's not the possibility of "one shot one kill" numerical superiority does count, though moderated by the fact that heavier armor and guns aren't as decisive. If you can concentrate forces to achieve that advantage, likely (but not always) victory will be yours. The keywords are "if you can"
Amateurs study strategy, professionals study logistics. The biggest obstacle to be overcome is the lack of interstellar transport that makes such a large scale offensive highly implausible.
The other problem is that the Federated Suns is a colossus with feet of clay. The AFFS is impressive, but at a huge cost and by expending huge sums of money in mercenaries, that in this age of limited warfare and resources, simply haven't the level of commitment of House troops. Any mercenary will prefer a bloodless stalemate to a costly victory because their victories don't belong to them, but to their employers. Mercenaries cannot afford high casualties or else they will not have anything left to sell. Same can be said of the 'Mechwarrior nobility who owns their own 'Mechs and are a sizeable portion of the House armies. The conquest ambitions of any House Lord are checked in by the fact that a good percentage of their troops are reluctant warriors very conscious of how much they have to lose.
As one famous general , Alejandro Farnesio, Duke of Parma, said "May God give me a hundred years of war and not a single day of battle"
That deeply rooted mindset hampers quite a lot the conduct of military operations. The informal rules of war followed weren't quite as bloodless as the ritualized warfare of the Age of War post Ares Conventions, but the fear of losing irreplaceable machines would put a brake on anybody looking for decisive victories through attrition and annihilation. 'Mechwarriors feel closer to feudal knights than to Clausewitz. And that state of mind cannot be changed overnight, not even by the most bloodthirsty Kurita tyrant. The fact that it was the Kuritans the ones to reintroduce limited war should give you reason to pause.
But I digress. The other main problem the Federated Suns has, aside from the lack of transport is: Too much has been spent in guns and too little in butter.
The AFFS is a mighty army, but very expensive. Mercenaries alone eat a big chunk of the budget. And all the costs have impoverished the population. The AFFS is at the peak of expansion, it has little growth potential left. Trying to squeeze the population a little more would be the straw that breaks the camel back. The Draconis Combine is in a similar situation , but the Capellan Confederation could do a military buildup to even up odds a little. and even worse, they could outbid Davion and hire mercenaries now under service to the FS. This not only reinforces the Capellans but makes the Suns weaker and unable to fill the holes.
If military spending is increased, there will be unrest. If transport is commandereed for a large offensive, there will be hunger and ruin. The official history for once is faithful to truth in showing the damage done to the Fs economy (even before the ComStar interdiction) and how quickly things go down the drain. What it conveniently fails to show is that those effects would be felt as soon as the deployment for a large scale invasion begins, and it would be felt during many months. So a troop movement too ambitious would wreck the FS even before a shot is fired.
The alternate of course, is moving a few units at a time, but doing so takes years, not months, and allows the enemy to notice what's going on and redeploy as well.
Oh, one last thing, it seems there is indeed a bit of a "military industrial complex" going on in the FS, it's noted that switching government spending towards the civilians would cause unrest in the military.
All this of course is my reasoning based on known facts. Still unconvinced? Well, straight from the horse's mouth
[/b] House Davion SB pg 119 [/b]
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These factors make the AFFS not only the largest, but the best fighting force among the five Sucessor States. Despite these advantages, the AFFS is still too small to do much more than keep the forces of the Draconis Combine and the Capellan Confederation at bayThe occasional effort to seize a world, the periodic raid, or the rare offensive have been the extent of the AFFS offensive capacity in the last few decades.
....
The biggest disadvantage the AFFS must overcome is the vastness of the FS. The extent of the realm, with its incredibly long borders, means the units must defend huge volumes of space. To mount an offensive means that the High Command must take troops away from the defense, leaving those who remain behind to watch over an even larger volume of space. The chances for disaster are many. Many a Field Marshal has lost over the fear of finding his offensive outflanked and the enemy pouring into the FS from behind.
pg 157
(about long borders)
The simple task of stationing troops along these borders to protect the vital inner worlds around New Avalon takes up more than two-thirds of the AFFS regiments , leaving precious few to use in an offensive
The inmensity of the FS creates another problem. The task of coordinating military actions between forces separated by light years is difficult and has caused te breakdown of many a fine AFFS offensive. Unless an action is meticulously planned and everyone has been fully briefed, the only offensive actions the AFFS is capable of are regiment-size raids.
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Also the militias in the FS are not considered battle ready by AFFS standards of equipment.
It looks like the AFFS places all the eggs in one basket by giving the Regular Army the best it can provide. Since the AFFS has been in the offensive for the last decades, it's only logical this emphasis on offensive units.
The militia on the other hand, SUCKS. The Planetary Guards are mostly infantry raised as the last ditich line of defense. Their personel are retirees and men and women who have been excused from regular service
Those recrutiments standards are even lower than for House Kurita, they don't rank even as expendable cannon fodder, at best as paramilitary police to keep the peasant and worker rabble in line.
In a direct comparison, the Capellan militia is a better trained force, and expected to do *something*
Not that it matters much, since in modern warfare, specially in Battletech where infantry lack the ability to kill armor with one shot, what really matters is the Battlemech and armor units, of course mechanized and jump infantry have some anti 'Mech/vehicle effectiveness, but the reason for the existence of infantry is doing infantry stuff. Camp security, fighting other infantry, mopping up, taking prisoners, siege work, occupation duties.. etc
however Robinson, Kestrel, and other plantes show quite clearly that the high number of AFFS veterans in the milita rolls allows even the most poorly equipped milita to maintain an effective resitance to invaders.
Now, though I think Planetary Guards in general are worse than those of other Houses, I reckon that the Draconis March is another story, and that there must be some militia armor units. And you have to add all the nobles household guards.
Basically we have a huge gap between the Regular Army and the Planetary Guard.
More over, the House book says (p.157) that
**************************************
With 110 Battlemech regiments and more than ten times that number in aersopace fighters, tanks, infantry and artillery units"
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That at first sight indicates the Suns have 1,100 conventional regiments, so that statement has to be taken with a grain of salt since the number seems too high.
On closer reading of the wording, it says "units" not regiments, so that's an exercise in creative accounting for propaganda purposes.
Assume the following breakdown
100 artillery units ( supposed every regiment has a company or battallion attached)
200 aerospace fighter wings ( 2 wings per regiment)
assume 5% of the force are special units like commandos, combat engineers, marines
100 assorted units
wich would leave 800 conventional regiments
400 in the regular army
400 other regiments
since the Planetary Guards are a joke and shouldn't be included in the calculations, unless they are armored units, I'm willing to concede the Federated Suns can draw a lot of second line and reserve regiments, specially considering that the Regular Army is not an occupation force. The Field Manual noticed this gap too, and covered it with the Forward Depoyment and Primary Relief infantry units
So assuming the ratio of 1 company of armor per regiment of infantry troops, (the same as the Capellan militia, if you think it's low, remember that most of the armor has already been concentrated in the RCTs of the Regular Army )
the AFFS would have reserve conventional forces of
40 armored regiments
400 infantry armored regiments
if you add them to the RCT units you have a total of about
100 'Mech regiments
200 armored regiments
600 infantry regiments
Again, if the conventional forces ratios are higher is not because they are small, it's because of the relative big size of the Battlemech arm. If you take the mercenaries out of the picture, the ratio of tanks to 'Mechs is closer to 3 to 1 than 2 to 1, wich is consistent with the ratios observed in other states, and still reflects the AFFS numerical edge.
So in conclusion, though the AFFS is big, it's not overwhelmingly so, and creating this army has practically bankrupted the realm.
I concede the AFFS superiority, but considering all the trump cards, and loaded dice, and flukes, and divine intervention used to justify the outcome of the original 4SW, invading either the Combine or the Confederation would be a much more costlier and drawn out affair than Davionista propaganga will make you believe.
I think the Federated Suns could launch a large scale invasion of the Confederation and score a great success. "Success" as per the standards of the previous succession wars would be capturing two dozen worlds in a decade of hard fighting, and it might not be worth the cost .
In fact, I think that the most intelligent decision that it could be taken by any Successor Lord would be making peace.
Hey, at least for the Lyrans, they only have to do nothing and wait, and they will win.
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