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Vampire
Free Worlds League
Lieutenant Colonel
Joined: 05-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 912
Location: Spain
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 Posted: 08-May-2002 13:16 Post subject: Battletech ranges: real world examples and rules ideas |
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-Standard recquired reading block
Battletech space-time scale ( 30 meters hexes and 10 second turns) was done that way to allow for some fancy footwork and maneuvering.
It works well for movement, but it hasn't anything to do with realistic ranges. It's just a rules convention that succeeds in one thing and fails abysmaly on the other.
-End of block.
Well, I have always postulated that Battletech weapon ranges are realistic if you use a 100 meters hex scale (threefold increase). And those in the know (like several of muy multiple personalities  ) will mutter that a fivefold increase (150 meters hexes) would be closer to reality.
After all, an AC/20 with a 1,000 meters effective range is a bit of a stretch.
"Effective" is the keyword here. I settled for 100 meters hexes ranges because those would be the normal ranges in combat conditions, taking into account a host of technical factors and yes, the longtime favourite "technological decay" excuse.
Well, I stumbled across this post somewhere else, and it's a sobering shower of realism for those people that keep dreaming about the theoretical possibilities of technology instead of sticking to hard facts.
FM-17-123 states that whilst it is "possible to hit a threat tank at 3000 metres it
is LESS probable to do so" and a tactic to be avoided as with the reduced combat loads carried "every 'bullet' must count".
[Editor's note: specially true considering that Battletech guns spedn four times as much ammunition]
They suggest 2000m as a the maximum practical engagement range.
[Ed's: looks like I was right  ]
In NTC training and lessons learned the
instructors again state the average crew, of an M1A1, should engage any target at a 2400m max limit with a pk of 65-75%.
[Ed's: I find it amazing and amusing that German Tiger crews of WWII using only optic sighting could hit a target at a range of 2000m with a 50% chance to hir *under combat conditions*. No, Germans weren't "übermensch", they just got a lot of practice in the school of war]
From their experience about a third of gunners can hit anything beyond that, these tanks should be designated as "sniper tanks" and begin engaging selected targets at 2600-2800m.
(snip)
I also believe that one of the British gunners was specifically mentioned in dispatches for hitting a target at 3000m +, in the Gulf so they obviously thing its an unusual engagement range to hit anything. Finally there are very few areas of the world where you have a 4000m uninterupted field of fire, remember in the six seconds that compose an average engagement cycle plus flight time of sabot a target could have moved up to 50-80m into cover.
Now, since I'm bad at math, I'd like that Gangrene would pick again his suggestion of using 10-sided dice for the To Hit rolls to better reflect hit percentages (it's too damn hard to hit a target with all the die modifiers anyway, average To Hir Roll in Battletech is 6, a 50% chance to hit, quite bad) and calculate if the percentage curve would match real worlds figure.
Data: Assume 1 hex = 100 meters. Take an AC/10 as being equivalent to a tank gun. Consider that hit probability at 1500m (10-15 hexes range band) varies between 50-75% under combat conditions.
That is consider that hit probability for shots by any and all weapons at their Long Range band should be 50-75%, without any modifiers of any kind applied.
Then figure out, *without* touching Battletech numbers and modifiers (ie, you can choose what kind of dice to roll, but the Target Numbers and modifiers remain the same)
with wich dice you could get a similar probability curve.
Suggestions: I think a 50% base chance to hit would be best for Long Range shots (current I think its 30%). I believe using D10s would be going to far, 8-sided dice would be a better alternative if odd.
So it all amounts to this: Six Siders Suck , whatoptions we have?
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Memento audare semper
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Gangrene
Federated Suns
Leftenant General
Joined: 04-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 939
Location: United States
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| Posted: 08-May-2002 15:21 Post subject: Battletech ranges: real world examples and rules ideas |
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See if I have this right: you want to keep the +2 and +4 for medium and long range, respectively, but you want to alter the die set so that, without other modifiers, you achieve a roughly 75% thru 50% chance-to-hit at long. This is with respect to a base of 4. Did I get that right?
First system: 1D12
Short range (4+): 75% (91% for 2D6 system)
medium range (6+): 58.3%
long range (8+): 41.6%
Not the best, but for each +1 modifier the to-hit descreses uniformly by 8.33%. There is a 3 fold increase in the chance of rolling the edges of the curve (2 or 12).
Second system: 2D10
short range (4+): 94%
medium range (6+): 85%
long (8+): 72%
The change in to-hit for a +1 mod is not uniform. The drop below 50% occurs at 11+. The chance of rolling a 2 or 20 is 1%.
Third system: 1D20
short range (4+): 85%
medium range (6+): 75%
long range (8+): 65%
The change in to-hit for a +1 modifier is uniform at 5%. The chance for rolling a 2 or 20 is 5%.
Is that sorta what you are looking for?
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Gangrene
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Vampire
Free Worlds League
Lieutenant Colonel
Joined: 05-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 912
Location: Spain
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| Posted: 08-May-2002 15:58 Post subject: Battletech ranges: real world examples and rules ideas |
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Yes, you got it right. Since I'm lousy with math and never passed the Statistics course, I needed you to do the number crunching
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First system: 1D12
Short range (4+): 75% (91% for 2D6 system)
medium range (6+): 58.3%
long range (8+): 41.6%
Not the best, but for each +1 modifier the to-hit descreses uniformly by 8.33%. There is a 3 fold increase in the chance of rolling the edges of the curve (2 or 12).
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Not good, by the way, I didn't know the percentage was so high for 4 rolls. Basically this what does is increasing 3 times your chances of screwing up or scoring a critical.
Not good, too unpredictable.
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Second system: 2D10
short range (4+): 94%
medium range (6+): 85%
long (8+): 72%
The change in to-hit for a +1 mod is not uniform. The drop below 50% occurs at 11+. The chance of rolling a 2 or 20 is 1%.
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this is a bit too much, too easy to hit, though you can add modifiers galore, like weather conditions and that, and not hurt the game.
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Third system: 1D20
short range (4+): 85%
medium range (6+): 75%
long range (8+): 65%
The change in to-hit for a +1 modifier is uniform at 5%. The chance for rolling a 2 or 20 is 5%.
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Hey, this is good, but aren't the results in a D20 more unpredictable? I thought that with 2 10-siders the results are more average,the probabibility curve being more steep so extreme results are rarer.
I like this better, problem is that D20 are uncomfortable to roll.
Now for something weird, could you please calculate the probabilities for 2 8 sided dice?
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Gangrene
Federated Suns
Leftenant General
Joined: 04-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 939
Location: United States
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| Posted: 08-May-2002 20:52 Post subject: Battletech ranges: real world examples and rules ideas |
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Since I'm lousy with math and never passed the Statistics course, I needed you to do the number crunching
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No prob. I actually do a lot of this when I make up my own equipment or think of ways to modify the system.
I have a couple of typos in my last post. I was in a rush. Let me correct those first.
1D12 system:
There is a 3 fold increase in the chance of rolling the edges of the curve (2 or 12).
That should read "(1 or 12)".
2D10 system:
short range(4+): 97%
medium range(6+): 90%
long range(8+): 79%
That should be 12+ for dropping below 50%, not 11+.
1D20 system:
The chance for rolling a 2 or 20 is 5%.
That should read "for rolling a 1 or 20".
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Hey, this is good, but aren't the results in a D20 more unpredictable? I thought that with 2 10-siders the results are more average,the probabibility curve being more steep so extreme results are rarer.
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Yeah, that's right. 2D10 will give you more results around the middle of the range (say 6 to 15). The 1D20 will give you higher chances of getting extreme values.
2D8 system:
short range(4+): 95.3%
medium range(6+): 84.4%
long range(8+): 67.2%
The change in to-hit for a +1 mod is not uniform. The drop below 50% occurs for a roll of 10+. The chance of rolling a 2 or 16 is 1.6%.
Here's the stats for a 2D6 system, for comparison.
short range(4+): 91.7%
medium range(6+): 72.2%
long range(8+): 41.7%
There you go.
_________________
Gangrene
[ This Message was edited by: Gangrene on 2002-05-08 20:53 ]
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Gangrene
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Jade_Dragon
8th Sword of Light
Sho-sho
Joined: 05-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 1323
Location: United States
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| Posted: 09-May-2002 08:11 Post subject: Battletech ranges: real world examples and rules ideas |
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Statiscally that should be exactly what Vampire is looking for 2D8.
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The JadeDragon
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Hardware
Clan Ghost Bear
Star Colonel
Joined: 04-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 605
Location: United States
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| Posted: 09-May-2002 09:36 Post subject: Battletech ranges: real world examples and rules ideas |
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Why not just go with a 100 meter hex and add a point blank range with a -2 modifier? I.E. if both mechs are in the same hex, it is much easier to hit. I've played some games with this house variant and things get pretty lethal. We didn't allow the physical attacks the same -2 mod as weapons fire.
Oh, and those German gunners with optical sights? Remember that the tanks of that fired while stationary. M1's shoot on the move. Still, pretty damn good for those Germans, but even today the best optics come from Germany, don't they?
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