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PS3: Flop of Fly?
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WhizzbangThePowerSquig
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PostPosted: 2006-11-17 08:13    Post subject: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Well, it releases in North America today, and there are a grand total of 35 000 in all of Canada. I know that the Toys R Us is only getting a single system.
So, quantity combined with pricepoint (1000 CAN to get it working at it's best form), the fact that the 360 is technically better in graphics, support, game selection, and price, and that the Wii comes out on sunday, I have a question:

Will PS3 be the next gaming system, or will it go belly up, similar to Dreamcast?

BTW, my vote is for the not rocking

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PostPosted: 2006-11-17 15:20    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

It's almost impossible to "lose" the console wars. The PS3 won't flop like dreamcast did, it'll just sell fewer units than the others.

Assuming I had $600 to spend, and I didn't have any PC parts to buy, I'd get a 360 and a Wii. Combined they'd still be cheaper than that Blu-Ray player.

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PostPosted: 2006-11-17 18:31    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

PS3 is neither here nor there. Blu-Ray is what Sony is putting everything behind (did they learn nothing from Betamax?).

For those into this kind of thing, Jonathan Last and Victoriano Matus over at the Weekly Standard have been following Blu-Ray and PS3 from the beginning. You can search the archives at Weeklystandard.com, or check their blog posts at galleyslaves.blogspot.com.

And no, I'm not a shill, I just like their work.
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PostPosted: 2006-11-18 14:44    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

It's doomed.

1. Stores such as Sears and Toys R Us have confirmed that Sony has failed to meet the promised numbers of systems available at launch date.

2. Reports are coming in that the PS3 may not work properly with a particular brand of Plasma TV set.

3. Sony has confirmed that the PS3 has only limited backwards-compatibility, meaning that a number of PS2 games will not work.

4. The X-Box 360 and the Wii have already hit shelves in full force and are attracting followings.

5. An estimate (based on the included components) suggests that even at $500 to $600 per unit, Sony is still losing money on each console to the tune of $200 or so each.

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PostPosted: 2006-11-19 02:15    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

AFAIK, all the consoles lose money in manufacture-per-unit. It's their share of the profits from games that come out for those systems that make the money.

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PostPosted: 2006-11-19 06:44    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

The 360, from what I understand, is already making a profit.

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PostPosted: 2006-11-19 14:18    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

According to various sources (see aforementioned journalists) no Nintendo project has ever been sold under at least production cost.

The X-Box was really the first console to go with the "make your money off the games" marketing design.
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PostPosted: 2006-11-21 08:29    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

I'm not too surpirsed that Microsoft would focus on making money off the software.
Still, the Box is the most expensive 2nd gen system, still retailing at 199.99 CAN, while PS2 is at 129.99, and the cube 109.99.

The thing I can't quite understand is why Sony is selling Blu-Ray capable PS3 for 659.99, while a true Blu-Ray player is upwards of $1000.
Also, why did they send out so many copies of Resistance: Fall of Man? Did they learn nothing from Atari's ET game?

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PostPosted: 2006-12-02 22:01    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Quote:
.
Also, why did they send out so many copies of Resistance: Fall of Man? Did they learn nothing from Atari's ET game?




Good analogy, almost.

SONY is taking a gamble here, but they know that if they get 2 million PS3s to the shelves, 2 million will sell. There is no longer a case of a system not selling, and SONY has the Holiday Vaccum effect down perfect. Anyways...Resistance is PS3's killer APP...a Gears of War competitor...Not a terrible game by any standards.

Systems will catch up.




One interesting note. gamestop reported a 3.0 games add-on for the Wii. thats an average of 3 games sold per system sold.

1.5 for the PS3! HA!

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PostPosted: 2006-12-02 22:08    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Flop.

Microsoft has a corner on the world's largest video game market, the US. they also control at least a large portion of the PAL nations (UK, Europe and Australia) due to its current availability and the fact that SONY isnt even going to PAL regions until April 2007 at the earliest.

That solidifies the 360's reign in the 2 largest markets until at least Christmas 2007. Thats technically 3 years in a row that 360 owns the holidays. Not bad. Christmas 2007 and Q1 2008 will see the real battles of epic proportion. Espicially cause thats the slotted time for the next full Gran Turismo and Final Fantasy's on PS3. Two mega-sellers. 360 will have Halo 3 for Christmas 2007 and maybe Halo Wars, as well as C&C3 and a couple of big name exclusive RPGs (Mistwalker's Lost Odyessey and FFXIII head to head!).

Don't expect SONY to have a good 2007 while they still struggle with 1st year gliches with the system and their online services.

After that, its anyone's guess. Both MS and SONY have a lot of big names to work with and its just the begining of the cycle.



Oh, for the record, developers say the 360 and the PS3 are equal in terms of graphical capabilities. PS3 has more raw processing power, the 360 has more video memory.

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PostPosted: 2006-12-03 11:42    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

I am not typically a Nintendo booster, but I don't see Microsoft successfully cornering the harware market in the US.

Microsoft makes great software, and HALO is a really good game (I was less impressed by 2), but the 360 and the X-box are still stripped down media computers.

That means they have to do lots of things really well. This makes the hardware expensive, and so Microsoft is selling at a loss. So is Sony.

Nintendo, on the other hand, makes mony right out of the gate, charges less than its competitors, and does its one thing really, really, well.

The only reason Sony and Microsoft are able to compete is because of their diversified nature. Microsoft can allocate money from other, more profitable, ventures to fund the 360 shortfall until game sales turn a profit.

Sony relies on its Blu-Ray and movie-licensing properties (which is failing miserably). Sony just fired the project manager for PS3 according to the LA Times. A year ago, PS2 was the project that funded Sony's underperforming Blu-Ray. Now, sony relies on Blu-Ray to fund underperforming PS3.

I don't think Sony will be driven out of the market, I do think that PS3 will flop and PS4 will be delayed a long time while PS2 makes up for the losses incured.

As for 360, I think the best thing Microsoft could do is find a way to let Nintendo products plug into 360, and really turn 360 into the CPU of a home-entertainment system. Then they win across the board. If they sink all their effort into taking down Nintendo, they'll spend a lot of money, and probably still not come out on top because they have a huge deficit to overcome in the first place.

In other words, there will be a Mac, and there will be a PC. Microsoft should try to be the PC (which everyone can use) rather than the Mac (which is ostensibly better, but only used by real enthusiasts).
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PostPosted: 2006-12-09 12:00    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Quote:

On 2006-12-03 12:42, SaberDance wrote:
I am not typically a Nintendo booster, but I don't see Microsoft successfully cornering the harware market in the US.




They already have it. They can outproduce SONY, and have a year headstart. Also, consumers, shocked by the pricing and lack of support from SONY, are more skeptical about the PS3. NA is not nearly as interested in it as Ebay prices say they are.

Quote:


Microsoft makes great software, and HALO is a really good game (I was less impressed by 2), but the 360 and the X-box are still stripped
down media computers.




What do you think the PS3 is? What do you think ANY console is? All they are are stripped down the essentials to run games at high speeds. This is why a Xbox 360 can run Oblivion better than any mid-end PC on the market. Consoles are sports cars, PCs are like Megatron in Transformers: Robots in Disguise. 5 different modes, none of which actually works as good as it should.

Quote:


That means they have to do lots of things really well. This makes the hardware expensive, and so Microsoft is selling at a loss. So is Sony.

Nintendo, on the other hand, makes mony right out of the gate, charges less than its competitors, and does its one thing really, really, well.




This too has been the case since the Dreamcast. Systems are no longer where money is made. Licensing, software and and add-ons are the money maker. Yes, Nintendo does make money out the door. They also have a more or less brand new technology system that many devs are not too keen on getting involved in just yet. Game development costs up to and exceeding 30million $ for major blockbuster hits. 15-20 for your middle range games. Almost every single Wii title released is a niche game. Its sells low, so devs are afraid to dump the 30 million into making a top notch Wii game. Nintendo CANNOT survive on 1st party alone. No matter how many Zeldas, Marios, Smashes and Pokemons they release, they will not survive another Gamecube and another N64.

Quote:


The only reason Sony and Microsoft are able to compete is because of their diversified nature. Microsoft can allocate money from other, more profitable, ventures to fund the 360 shortfall until game sales turn a profit.




This is the new market slogan for both SONY and Microsoft. But MS got into the game expecting that. They are making money off of the 360, however. Halo 3 will just make them that much happier.

Quote:


Sony relies on its Blu-Ray and movie-licensing properties (which is failing miserably). Sony just fired the project manager for PS3 according to the LA Times. A year ago, PS2 was the project that funded Sony's underperforming Blu-Ray. Now, sony relies on Blu-Ray to fund underperforming PS3.




SONY is a very very terrible company. No one is disputing that.

Quote:


I don't think Sony will be driven out of the market, I do think that PS3 will flop and PS4 will be delayed a long time while PS2 makes up for the losses incured.




SONY wont leave for a while. Theys till have the Japanese market to feed them. As soon as FFXIII, DMC4, RE5, SC4 go gold, then SONY will look upon the world and smile its evil black-toothed grin.

Quote:


As for 360, I think the best thing Microsoft could do is find a way to let Nintendo products plug into 360, and really turn 360 into the CPU of a home-entertainment system. Then they win across the board. If they sink all their effort into taking down Nintendo, they'll spend a lot of money, and probably still not come out on top because they have a huge deficit to overcome in the first place.




MS is NOT competeing with Nintendo. I cannot stress that enough. MS' Xbox leader said at E3 "I think everyone should get a Wii! Its awesome. And then with the money leftover, you can STILL get a 360 for the price of a PS3." (Might not be exact quote, but its close enough).

Quote:

In other words, there will be a Mac, and there will be a PC. Microsoft should try to be the PC (which everyone can use) rather than the Mac (which is ostensibly better, but only used by real enthusiasts).



Screw Macs. Anything a Mac can do, a PC can do. Video editing and sound editing software are available for both. A REAL enthusiast knows a MAC is an overpriced, underpowered piece of crap. If you are REALLY an enthusiast, you build your own PC for 1/4 the price and have a much better more effecient machine.

The breakdown is like this...

The 360 is a Corvette C6. Its not terribly expensive for what you get. It does what it does fine. It goes fast, has very few problems and can double as a sports car or a cruiser.

The PS3 is a Skyline GT-R R34 V-Spec 2. Its costs more than a Corvette. Isnt necessarily better, but does have a wow factor to it. Obtaining one is a bitch, but its fun to drive. If it breaks, you're screwed.

The Wii is a Subaru Impreza WRX STi 22b. Its not as fast as either the Skyline or the Corvette. Not nearly as flashy, but its unique system make it a blast to drive and its reliable.

And just cause I love analogies like this...

The PSP is a Lotus Elise. Small little thing, but quick...except for the turbo-lag.

The DS is a Mini Cooper S. Not nearly as powerful as the Lotus...but jesus there isnt a better handling car.

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PostPosted: 2006-12-09 13:09    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Miscrosoft isn't competing with Nintendo, but the 360 is. PS3 is going to do poorly. That means the market will be between Nintendo and 360.

I don't know how they will divide it, but I suspect it will be a dominate market and a niche market.

And if game system revenue depended on enthusiasts, they'd all go bankrupt in a year.

The bulk of the people who buy this stuff are normal people who thought it would be nice to have a home entertainment system. In that audience, Nintendo has a big advantage because of name recognition and price. This is the audience that says "We're gonna go pick up a nintendo set" when they mean they're going to get an X-Box.

And Nintendo hasn't had a financial flop in it's history. Even DS and Gameboy advance eventually caught on.

Sports car analogies are great, but the marketers try to sell their products as minivans to the general public.

I'm not saying which system is better, and I'm not saying which company is better.

I'm saying in this particular market, Sony is going to get hammered hard for the next few years, and part of its share is going to be split between 360 and Wii.

And because of that, Nintendo, who always makes money, is in a better position to profit than MicroSoft, who has to make up the difference on games and accessories.

I'm not saying MS doesn't have the strength to do it, I'm just saying they have a millstone around their neck.
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PostPosted: 2006-12-09 13:18    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Quote:


Quote:


As for 360, I think the best thing Microsoft could do is find a way to let Nintendo products plug into 360, and really turn 360 into the CPU of a home-entertainment system. Then they win across the board. If they sink all their effort into taking down Nintendo, they'll spend a lot of money, and probably still not come out on top because they have a huge deficit to overcome in the first place.




MS is NOT competeing with Nintendo. I cannot stress that enough. MS' Xbox leader said at E3 "I think everyone should get a Wii! Its awesome. And then with the money leftover, you can STILL get a 360 for the price of a PS3." (Might not be exact quote, but its close enough).

Quote:

In other words, there will be a Mac, and there will be a PC. Microsoft should try to be the PC (which everyone can use) rather than the Mac (which is ostensibly better, but only used by real enthusiasts).







And, you realize that for this entire section you agreed with me, right? And Microsoft seems to agree with me too. I said that shouldn't try to compete with Nintendo, but rather dominate the market relationship.

Microsoft seems to be taking that approach.

Also, cornering the market does not mean having three good years in a row. It means having so much influence on the market that nothing happens without the approval of the cornering company. It is one step removed from monopoly.

Microsoft has not cornered the US market. It has two and a half streets, but Nintendo still has 1 street, and Sony is holding onto an outgoing lane.
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PostPosted: 2006-12-09 13:54    Post subject: RE: PS3: Flop of Fly? Reply to topic Reply with quote

Sorry to be talking so much, I'll be done for a while after this.

I looked up the domestic hardware sales from 2005.

Official manufacturing sales:

Microsoft (XBOX and 360): 16.9 million units
Nintendo (gamecube): 12 million units
Sony (PS2): 40.99 million units.

On what definition of the word "corner" has Microsoft cornered the domestic hardware market? They have a 25% market share.
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